How Do I Know If I'm Registered To Vote In Pa
Taking Biden at face value nearly Michigan and Wisconsin — where, for what it'south worth (non that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a meaning polling lead — hither's where the map goes: If Biden wins those 2, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, only nothing else, he's at 269 balloter votes. Which means he's a Nebraska-02 (where he's currently leading) abroad from hitting 270 on the number, WITHOUT Pennsylvania and Maine's 2nd District.
Trump is expected to also make a statement tonight.
Those car horns do NOT translate well on television.
"Keep the faith guys, nosotros're going to win this," Biden says to a sea of auto horns honking away at the rally.
Biden giving Dems some promise here: "Nosotros believe nosotros're on track to win this ballot."
Information technology'south such a blow to Iowa Democrats who really believed they were gaining traction in the state.
Joe Biden is now speaking.
I remember Iowa and Ohio are going to miss being swing states, and all the attention and economic benefit that attaches to that status.
Even if Biden pulls this out, very probable he will face Mitch McConnell instead of Chuck Schumer which will stop a lot of his most ambitious calendar items.
Happy now, Marc? AP just chosen Florida for Trump.
UPDATE: Biden plans to speak at 12:thirty a.m.
Biden'southward win in Minnesota shuts down one Trump path to 270 electoral votes. But those three core states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — still loom big here.
Alex It's similar the Biden military camp dabbled in Ohio from fourth dimension to time, put some ad money in there but never really seriously invested in it.
On strategy, Christopher, yous had to requite Trump credit on the media front...he was doing gaggles everywhere. Nosotros caught him out here in CA...where the possiblities of him picking up votes from media avail was not optimal. (OK, and so he called our question "nasty,'' when we asked if he cared nigh bluish states. ) But media availability wasn't a problem...and from a CA viewpoint, it hasn't ever been easy to get an avail with Kamala Harris, fifty-fifty in her earlier races.
Steven just called Ohio for Trump. Biden's team went there yesterday for a final 2d button in Cleveland. Trump has held on.
Hard to completely defend Biden's strategy given where this race is. They went to Ohio yesterday and Trump looking likely at that place now too.
Biden squad doesn't advertise their interviews as much, but by my count Kamala Harris did about 14 today, including radio and Television in several swing states.
The Trump army camp reaction to Fox calling Arizona for Biden tells y'all only how big they think that is to him. Hearing lots of pushback, and spokespeople and Trump directorate are tweeting their displeasure at Trick.
The rallies were demonstrative of just overall activeness too. Trump's team did more interviews, stops, etc. Pence did 21 local goggle box interviews today, for example. Biden's team felt laying depression was to their reward and I wonder if they are second guessing that at present. Maybe not. Just seems like a reasonable question to inquire given where we are at.
Biden rallies were not advertised and they were drive-in events where people would honk their approval, which is kind of odd considering how honking is otherwise considered rude and annoying
Alex From lots of Dems I've talked to most the rallies the takeaway is that Trump had far more to lose when he couldn't do rallies and more to gain when he did. For Biden, the rally aspect just wasn't a commuter that it was for Trump.
Trump did more twice as many rallies every bit Biden did in the final week of the race. I wonder if at that place is whatsoever second-guessing themselves in Biden country given how much of a squeaker this has get.
Christopher It is too early to tell. Milwaukee County -- a Democratic stronghold -- says it won't accept results until 5 a.chiliad. at the primeval. Republicans are feeling adept most their rural turnout. But Democrats point to Dane County, the biggest pot of votes for Democrats. Biden is on step to outperform Clinton in Dane County, which has also seen population growth since 2016.
I thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and Due north Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. Then he has a fiddling cushion there to work with.
With the caveat that nosotros notwithstanding know very, very trivial about Pennsylvania, let's zoom in on one county: Washington Canton, which is in the pro-Trump western part of the state. Trump wanted to drive more than votes out of it; Biden wanted to cut his losses. Ane smart PA Dem strategist told me he wanted Biden to become to 40% in the canton.
According to the NYT, more than 98% of estimated votes there have been reported. Here'southward the count:
2020: Trump: 70,760 (61.01%) Biden: 43,949 (37.89%)
2016: Trump: 61,386 (threescore.51%) Clinton: 36,322 (35.80%)
So, assuming NYT'southward 98%+ reporting guess is correct, Trump got more raw votes out of Washington Canton similar he wanted — quite a bit more. And Biden did cut his losses compared to Clinton. Merely Biden didn't get to 40% like the strategist wanted (and which Obama got beyond twice).
I'one thousand still obsessing over Nebraska'south electoral vote in the 2nd District. Looks like Sarpy Canton is reverting to form and Trump leads at that place (west/86% in). But Biden is running much better than Clinton in both Douglas and Sarpy counties so he'south still in the hunt
Will exist interesting to compare how Biden does with California'due south Latinos, who make up 40 percent of the state'due south population. Latinos were 20 pct of the early voters, and here, they're overwhelmingly Mexican-American, and Central American -- very different voter bloc than in FLA
Trump lost Osceola by xiv points this fourth dimension. He lost information technology by 25 in 2016
There's a lot of chalking upwardly Biden's loss in Florida to "Cubans in Miami." Intriguingly, the other large Hispanic County of Florida, Osceola, showed Trump doing 11 points better than he did in 2016 (Trump did 22 points better in Miami-Dade). Osceola is a Puerto Rican-heavy county. So Biden's problem was with at least sixty percent of the Florida Hispanic electorate (if not more).
Alex's sources are likely right, and it'due south going to exist a long expect. At present that California is in Biden's column, he's at 209 electoral votes, to Trump's 119. Permit's presume Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas are going to Trump. Requite him Hawaii, Biden needs to discover 58 electoral votes somewhere — some combination of Minnesota (x), Arizona (eleven), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (x), Pennsylvania (twenty), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Maine (three), ME-02 (one), NE-02 (1), Georgia (xvi). He can lose Georgia, but and then he needs to win EVERYTHING ELSE if he also lost Pennsylvania.
ii senior Republicans tell me they dont expect a articulate result tonight and that it will probable have until the weekend for a clear outcome to emerge
A major Biden donor pointed out something to me significant about these W Coast states coming in. Even though everyone expected them, they change the electric current EV count. That matters if y'all have any concern about Trump calling victory early. Every bit he put information technology, "Am happy to become west coast EV at present...will make information technology harder for Trump to say he won when psychologically Biden now has clear pb for awhile"
Good evening all..joining from Oakland, CA -- hometown of Kamala Harris. Polls take just closed in California, and Dems hither are nervous well-nigh what they're watching in the rest of the country. Here, no worries. California just projected a win for Biden.
Yeah, Florida is a weird isle Nancy. No doubt. Merely FL, GA, NC, TX are all in (or appearing to head into) the Trump win cavalcade after so many people said they were total of only hot air. And so maybe they get some more benefit of the doubt?
Biden's campaign was ready to outspend Trump on TV by about $180 one thousand thousand, equally of two weeks agone.
I just ran the numbers and Trump'south entrada, despite their cash troubles, still outspent Biden on Facebook, Google, and YouTube by near $forty one thousand thousand.
I do recollect, though, Trump aides are likewise trying to use the momentum of appearing to win Florida to make information technology seem like the race is over...That's a narrative that suits them, when we still are waiting on lots of data and when Florida really is its own unique (some would say weird) political island. cc:
A Trump donor tells me: "Trump focused on GOTV and Biden blew money on television and stayed home....Latino and Blackness men are more for trump than in past cycles and the polling turnout models are incorrect. Pollsters missed uneducated white turnout last time. This time Never Trumped GOP are over represented in the polls."
Nancy Charlie Laura One point is fifty-fifty if Biden wins AZ he still needs to win every ane of the blueish wall states. It gives them far less flexibility than they'd hoped had they taken NC.
Trump coming out confident tonight and Biden waiting until belatedly to meet what happens would largely mirror how the final several months have gone, tbh.
Hearing more than and more pessimism from NC Democrats that Biden volition non be able to take hold of upwardly in that location. Trump won NC past iii.6 points in 2016, so it'll obviously be far closer in 2020, simply like I said, more than cynicism that Biden won't catch upward. (Again, usual caveats, it'due south not been called all the same!)
Steven Agree -- winning Arizona opens the path to victory for Biden. If Biden wins AZ and runs the tabular array in the Rust Belt -- WI/MI/PA -- he wins. NC won't matter.
Ane thing I will watching is: Does Trump come out and talk tonight and offer remarks and/or declare a win if the election is nonetheless this shut and millions of ballots in states similar Pennsylvania remain uncounted?
Trump campaign officials tells me they're nervous about AZ, but have seen their expectations met or surpassed in terms of day-of GOP turnout so far and are belongings out promise for the same in AZ. One campaign adviser I spoke with cited leave polls that showed the economy may be the lead upshot for AZ voters – men and women included
Getting at the "red mirage" idea, if nosotros don't get Atlanta and large GA burbs, and some major blue areas of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania information technology's easy to see Trump'southward lead holding for now or staying closer than they should end upwards. Aforementioned for GA senate races Charlie
Steven Yup, Arizona is the swing state that may break for Biden and change the map.
I'm not sure if the advice of California Democrats is a expert style to win battlegrounds, David. It looks equally if Kamala Harris did little to help Biden in Florida. If the other battlegrounds swing to Trump, it might be fourth dimension for the party to consider whether Biden'southward pledge to be the "nearly progressive" president and run with a California liberal on the ticket might have been wrong for the times. Still, Mulholland has a point. Florida is tough and getting tougher for Democrats.
So far, the night has gone exactly how President Trump needed it to become to accept a run a risk to win a second term. But that might end in Arizona. If Joe Biden'due south current nine-point lead holds up, it gives Biden a petty flake of breathing room, which he hasn't gotten in the results thus far.
if trump wins this, one has to wonder if the infrastructure/field program/registration effort they developed over the concluding two years made a big difference
One Trump adviser tells me folks starting to feel cautiously optimistic -- though nosotros yet have a means to go. For the past 1.v weeks, they accept started to feel much better about increment in Republican voter registrations, omnipresence at rallies from people who did not vote Republican or for Trump in 2016 and their ability to turn-out votes.
Mucarsel Powell won in 2018 in good weather condition for her, simply the Cuban-American vote was ginned up by Trump and Gimenez is a Cuban-American. And the other office of that district is in the Florida Keys, which has a strong Trumpy rebel streak
For all the focus on Florida, I call back not long ago when plenty of Democrats were skeptical about the party's chances there -- and leery of investing. Bob Mulholland, the former longtime DNC member, simply texted me this: 'After spending $200 million in Florida in 2016 & 2020, let'due south forget it til 2028."
Holly My bespeak in mentioning Montgomery Canton and Philly is that if those places aren't reporting all their votes, the blood-red mirage scenario is still very much in place if the president chose that route.
Natasha I've been waiting to see the results out of Ohio'south Delaware County, an exurban county due north of Columbus; I viewed it as a kind of indicator species. It's affluent, fast-growing, Republican and didn't have alot of love for Trump in 2016 though it voted for him. If it flipped to Biden, it would accept been a sign of real weakness in the exurbs. With 98% in, Trump has 52% -- two points behind his 2016 performance. Biden ran 7 points alee of Clinton.
Increasing amounts of incoming from the Trump campaign that Florida is non an outlier, that swing-state whites are going to pause harder for Trump upwards northward. I have no idea if that'south right. But lots of folks said they were crazy about their confidence in winning Florida, and Trump did pretty solidly.
A picayune Minnesota update here. Nearly 90 percent of precincts are in Anoka County, a big suburban Twin Cities county that went for Trump by almost 10 points in 16 before Tim Walz carried in narrowly in 18. I figured if the outcome was closer to 2018 levels than 2016 levels, it would exist good news for Biden. He's losing it past about 1 point, which is squarely in the 2018 lane. That suggests the trouble Trump is having in outer-ring suburbs
Charlie that's the kind of news Biden's team is searching for most now. Their numbers in Ohio are tightening, though they're outperforming Clinton in the Cincinnati suburbs.
If Maricopa goes for Biden, that's going to require an even bigger rural turnout for Trump.
Maricopa County has voted Republican in every ballot since 1948; with 77% of estimated votes reported, Biden is up 54-45.
Trump but narrowly won Maricopa in 2016. This twelvemonth, his prospects accept faded amid Latino population growth and the rising tide of moderate, white, higher-educated suburbanites.
Those Arizona numbers show Biden ahead in Maricopa County, home to more than than 60 percent of the state's voters.
Big dump of Arizona votes...69% now in
Charlie Very nervous Dems in NC tell me that they're watching Wake, Mecklenburg, Durham extremely closely. Yet about 10-xv percent outstanding in those three counties. Simply, like you said, this is going to be a nail-biter.
With 84% in, North Carolina is looking like a nailbiter. Biden leads Donald Trump 49.7 to 49.ane. Both candidates have already surpassed 2016 vote totals
Nosotros should call Florida. It is impossible for Biden to catch upwards unless the Florida Sectionalization of Elections website is posting inaccurate information. Trump leads Biden past 381,158 votes out of 10,926,262. The state is reporting that a full of xi,002,345 votes were cast in the election. So there are only 76,083 votes left to count. Even if Biden won 100% of the outstanding votes, he would still lose by 306,075
Charlie In Washington County, for example, Trump's share is 74 pct as of at present, outperforming 2016's numbers where he had 67 percent. Just every bit of now, Biden is outperforming Hillary Clinton's numbers in Dane County by five per centum points. But again, all absentee may not be in.
Not sure virtually that Alex -- nosotros're gonna not take most of New York and California for a scrap ... and I imagine Biden will blow the doors off there. Think the final popular vote margin might be a while
Marc take you heard any regrets from Florida Democrats that they didn't endeavor to stand up their ground game until the final weeks. The Biden army camp had made a point of non doing in-person door-knocking and campaign events to try to show that they were the more than responsible campaign until the last moment.
Popping in with an Ohio thought: Chatting with a GOP strategist, who'due south spotlighting Delaware County, Ohio. This is a longtime Republican stronghold, suburban Columbus, but with about ninety per centum of the vote in there, Trump is but upward by .1 percent of a signal. Trump won it almost 16 points in 2016. This is a key county for Dems. AND a lot of the big Dem counties in Ohio are nevertheless out. That existence said, every bit per usual, still early, even so waiting for a lot of outstanding Ballot Day votes in Ohio, which is likely to trend better for Trump.
National polls heading into Tuesday showed a 10 point Biden lead in some cases. That'due south not belongings upward so far
In Texas, Austin'south Travis County is blowing out the doors for Biden. He's going to take a much bigger margin out of that county than Clinton.
Natasha Trump campaign has to be pleased with that. Trump underperformed Mitt Romney in those conservative counties in 2016.
Charlie WOW is starting to trickle in and the early percentages are looking strong for Trump.
Nebraska has been called for Trump -- merely the question of the single electoral vote attached to its 2d Congressional Commune has withal to be decided. Pre-ballot polls suggested Biden had a atomic number 82 in the district and was poised to flip that vote away from Trump. Now hither's at least 1 piece of bear witness that weighs in Biden's favor -- he's leading Trump in suburban Sarpy Canton, which is where Clinton got killed. And Sarpy is the Republican function of that district.
Looking at the limited returns we've seen so far, here are a few of my takeaways. --The president's socialism arguments seemed to gain traction in South Florida --Biden is running well in the college counties that have reported, suggesting he's running well with younger voters in those places --Trump'south struggle in fast-growing Lord's day Belt suburbs is very real
Twitter has had to label many of these tweets from the Trump entrada and its supporters given that the state hasn't been officially called.
Trump's squad in FL declare victory
And Trump'southward lead continues to grow in Florida. It's now 374k, 8k more in 6 minutes.
Yep, Charlie, Trump appears to have held on to and built back up among Lumbee Indians and those non-college voters in that canton. This is a crimson-leaning county, simply any places where he tin improve on his 2016 numbers will exist important to hold off losses in suburban counties.
Elena Trump appears to be running much stronger than in 2016 in Robeson County, home to the Lumbee Indians and a canton that twice voted for Obama before flipping to Trump.
Yes! But what near how Trump might make up some margins in other rural counties in NC? Still trying to do some fast math to do some comparisons here.
Update on Ballot Day in Philadelphia from the DA's role here:
"Every bit of nine:00 p.chiliad. on Tuesday, 68 incidents were reported to the Election Task Forcefulness and 67 incidents were peacefully resolved. The vast majority of reported incidents involved concerns about unlawful electioneering or interference at polling sites. Most problems involving misunderstandings or miscommunication about voting rules and laws were resolved by Election Chore Force prosecutors by phone, and DAO prosecutors and detectives also responded to investigate incidents at polling sites in all half dozen Philadelphia Police divisions. Several incidents volition require follow-upward by investigators."
Trump's margin in Florida is growing. It's now 366k. It was 295k before. The big blueish counties are nearly fully reported out. Hard to run across this non beingness a Trump win
Jumping in to add some color from NC: From NC land Rep. Graig Meyer: "It'southward style closer than we thought information technology would be. Trump running strong in the mountains. His turnout is high." He noted that he's withal watching Wake, Mecklenburg and Durham county come in more fully. (Still fifteen-twenty percent outstanding in those three states.) Simply it'southward going to be very, very close in NC.
The Biden entrada offers this updated accept on Florida: "We said Florida was going to be close and... information technology is! We also said we didn't accept to win information technology, and that remains true. We are encouraged by some of the gains, especially in suburbs, that could have national ramifications. We are also doing well in the not-Cuban Hispanic vote, which bodes well elsewhere. At that place are non places in other states that await like MIami-Dade. And, we have seen throughout this campaign that other Latino voters don't vote like Cuban-Americans."
In Texas' Tarrant Canton (Fort Worth), the tertiary-nigh populous county in the land, Trump leads Biden by just two-tenths of a per centum point with lxxx% in. Tarrant has voted Republican in all but one ballot since 1952; George Due west. Bush-league won the canton past 25 points in 2004 and Paw Romney won information technology by 16 in 2012.
Boy, Trump is looking weak in some of those Texas suburban counties
Marc Explain this to a non-Florida Man. Biden looks similar he might flip Pinellas and Jacksonville'south Duval Canton. He's getting a bigger margin than Clinton out of Orlando'southward Orange County. He's running a few percentage points better than Clinton in some of the GOP counties in SW Florida. How bad, or merely lackluster, is his performance in Miami-Dade?
Now, we tin't say that Miami-Dade is completely responsible for Trump's likely win. If we apply Clinton's margins to Miami-Dade and keep the rest of the race stable, Trump nevertheless would exist ahead statewide in Florida, past 117k votes, instead of 295k
Judging from two college counties -- Florida'south Alachua Canton (U of Florida) and NC's Orange County (UNC) -- Biden is doing ameliorate than expected among younger voters. He's running ahead of Clinton'due south pace in those places and figures to go slightly bigger margins out of those counties.
Basically, this map looks amazingly like to 2016, with ane GIAN exception: Miami-Dade. Trump is doing 22 points better than in 2016.
We're notwithstanding waiting on a lot of rural counties in NC, merely Dems should take some hope from driving up turnout in both Wake and Meck counties in NC.
In Orange County, Trump is doing just 2 points meliorate than he did in 2016.
Natasha North Carolina was the but swing state that Manus Romney won in 2012, after Barack Obama won it in 2008. Donald Trump did even better than Romney in 2016, and he's been focused pretty heavily on it with his rallies this autumn. A Joe Biden win in Florida could have been a knockout, but if he takes North Carolina, it'due south no small deal.
Natasha Mecklenberg County (Charlotte), some other fundamental county for Biden, is also producing a solid result for him. To have any risk of flipping NC from Trump, Biden had to run better than Clinton in Mecklenberg and Wake counties, the two most populous in the state. He'south doing that. But a few other things take to happen as well. It's non quite articulate to me how well Trump is doing in the exurbs and rural areas.
So I'm searching around Florida'south vote, and I encounter very few signs of promise for Joe Biden and lots of hope for Donald Trump. Miami-Dade's importance here can't be understated. The big blueish counties aren't finished with reporting their tallies, but Trump's margin now is 295,000. And at current support rates, it's just very difficult to meet where Biden observe the votes to overcome that
Biden -- and Dems -- have been far more bullish about NC than FL
Looking at the NC results, Biden is burdensome it in 1 of the ii nigh of import counties -- affluent and educated Wake County. To win the state, Biden had run better than Clinton in Wake County and he'south on a trajectory to exercise then
Christopher Or Ohio. Democrats had been lobbying Biden to brand an investment in that location in role because returns were expected early on.
Gonna be wild if Texas is closer than Florida.
For example, Holly, one example from Jen O'Malley Dillon, Biden's campaign manager, that implied they were still counting on Pa could be seen in this quote. "If we but win one state betwixt N Carolina and Georgia, and so we could lose Michigan and Florida and yet become over 270 electoral votes."
Holly If Biden loses Fla, Due north Carolina and Georgia, his so-called greater Midwest certainly includes winning Pennsylvania. That'south a point that they made. Losing Pa would seem to require picking up something big elsewhere.
Christopher On the expectation-setting remarked upon earlier from the Biden entrada almost Florida, what are we to brand of the fact that the campaign told me this a few days ago about Pennsylvania — that "nosotros tin win without Pennsylvania," though they didn't call back they'd need to?
Study that but went out from the Pennsylvania Ballot Protection Coalition on issues today in the state:
"Amid the issues: Several polling places opened tardily. Loftier turnout meant long lines, which remain active at some locations.(Any eligible voter in line by eight p.m. is permitted to vote.) Voters spoiled mail-in ballots at loftier rates, and some poll workers were confused most how to process those ballots. Non-English-speaking residents faced language admission problems at a few polling locations. Some voters expressed business concern nearly imposing constables, others reported feeling harassed. Some precincts reported mechanical problems or ran out of supplies. While all of these problems are concerning, none of them are too far out of the ordinary for bug that arise during any normal election year — and this year was far from normal, with many expecting the worst in terms of potential disruptions and possible conflict."
This is not a phone call. Merely I do not run across the math for Joe Biden. Information technology looks as if this election is obeying the same rules as other Florida elections: the candidate whose party out-votes the other political party wins.
Hey Charlie! Polls closed at 8 p.m. The AP has already called the state for Biden and Sen. Booker. They were never in question
Hey mfriedman NJ polls but airtight, right? What are the big races you're watching at that place?
Both campaigns have armies of attorneys at the ready for PA and other states. A lengthy post-Ballot court battle is the scenario Biden's military camp has and then fiercely tried to avoid past expanding their map to 17 states.
Mail-in numbers in PA:
- 1,658,804 cast by registered Democrats
- 599,494 cast by registered Republicans
- 284,931 cast by those registered as no amalgamation/3rd political party/other
- About 548,000 mail-in ballots have not been returned as of now — but if they are postmarked by Election Day (or at that place is not a "preponderance of evidence" they were sent after) and received within 3 days, the country Supreme Court said they must be counted
Christopher It seemed reminiscent of the Biden team's warnings that Iowa didn't matter. If the polls expect bad for him don't worry virtually it!
To echo Natasha's point in terms of Biden camp's expectations setting in recent days, it'due south possible they saw this coming. Lots of their comments have focused on how Biden doesn't need to win Florida. They seemed very attuned to how the ballot is covered tonight and how Democrats would have the news.
30,000+ mail ballots — a teeny tiny fraction of the ii.v million received every bit of this forenoon in the state — were just reported in Pennsylvania. We may be entering the cursory "blue mirage" portion of the night, where Biden deceptively looks like he's doing well because counties outset written report the mail ballots they've been counting all day, and Biden supporters disproportionately voted past postal service.
I experience like my job this entire night might exist explaining why #nothingmatters in PA.
In Arizona, it doesn't mean Biden can't win with a white coalition as well, simply recent polling in Arizona, including final NYT/Siena poll did not show Trump breaking through his 2016 numbers with Latinos in the land.
To jump in here and zoom out a bit for Team Biden: the terminal ii days they have given the impression that Florida would be tight and seemed to be setting up expectations that information technology could very well get to Trump. Seemed their messaging was to soften the blow if Florida went red early in the nighttime.
For white, working form voters, Ohio is certainly ane to watch.
Observation of Miami-Dade and Biden'south underperformance at that place compared with Clinton is it's difficult at the moment to extrapolate what this ways for Latino voters in states like Nevada, Arizona and Texas. Could be a warning sign, but likewise could be unique to Trump's efforts in Fla, with Cuban, Venezuelan and Puerto Rican voters.
Every bit we're seeing these Florida numbers, a flashback to what Bernie Sanders told me in September about Biden'south underperformance with Latino voters: "I retrieve that the Biden campaign has got to get beyond institution people, become to grassroots Latino leaders who are in contact with immature people, with the communities, and help fund their activities. But I think there is a likelihood that if that is not washed, turnout in the Latino community could exist lower than we would like and information technology could result in Biden losing some very fundamental states."
Information technology's a few minutes before polls close in the Panhandle of Florida and the Democrat is up past just 0.four percentage points. Normally, this would be the last time you lot see the land shaded blue considering, after seven Fundamental time, the Panhandle Republican counties would provide an extra dose of red to flip the color of the map. But that'south normally. Let's run across how normal this is.
More Florida: With 91% in, Biden atomic number 82 51-47 in Jacksonville's Duval County. That would be a flipped county; Trump won it 48-47 and Romney won it in 2012, 51-48
Some of those blue states that Trump had focused on early, including New United mexican states, Colorado and Virginia, didn't get much attention in contempo weeks
Orlando's Orangish County also looking solid for Dems. Biden is running 50k votes ahead of Clinton, with 93% in
Polls shut in 15 minutes in Pennsylvania.
But I can't stress this plenty: Biden's win would exist unique for two reasons. ane) Democratic voters were outvoted by Republicans 2) The Miami-Dade margins are the stuff of a losing Autonomous entrada that needs far more votes out of here
GOP strategist only made this point to me: If Florida goes ruby in 2020, while Georgia, NC, Texas are seen as more/just as competitive for Dems, information technology could totally alter Florida's function in presidential politics. It'southward big, expensive and complicated, and so what if Dems stop challenging information technology and focus on other SEC-type states?
Biden appears well ahead of Clinton'southward pace in Jacksonville's Duval County. Went narrowly for Trump in 2016 and Biden is at 54% with 75% of votes in. What do you make of that
I'm joining live from Miami besides, where we just got early numbers for Miami-Dade County. Right now, we're seeing Biden 54 to Trump 45. The early on look at this shows Trump actually has made inroads with Cubans and other Latinos down here.
At present for the bad news for Biden: Miami-Dade Canton is not breaking his way the style it needs. With the total early vote, Biden is only ahead by 9 in a county that Clinton won past nearly 30
Ok. Coming back upward for air here in Florida. We've got some preliminary results, mainly from early and absentee votes and Biden is doing well, as expected.
Steven This is absolutely a function of how unlike voting has been this twelvemonth -- the huge volume of mail voting, the dissever between Democrats and Republicans in terms of voting by mail versus on Election 24-hour interval, inconsistencies in how different jurisdictions process their mail votes -- information technology makes figuring out what's going on in early returns a nightmare. And to exist articulate, the people who call races for the networks and AP are certified geniuses. But I look many of them might be a lot more conservative this year.
Some interesting departure in the race calls so far: CNN and NBC called Indiana for Trump, only neither the AP nor Fox has (which ways we haven't withal). Pull a fast one on and the AP have called Kentucky for Trump, only the other networks say information technology's too early. Fox and the AP have besides called Vermont for Biden; Fox alone called Virginia for Biden.
Sometimes these early on calls are clues as how the night is going to go. This is a confusing mixed bag, so there's no clarity hither yet.
Anita And in a sign of how important PA is to the race, Biden tried to fend off Trump'southward attacks over fracking over and over. During Biden's final stop in the country yesterday at a drive-in rally in Pittsburgh, following his barnstorm of the state with his running mate Kamala Harris and their spouses, he said for the zillionth time that he doesn't want to ban fracking.
Holly Trump's team really focused on Biden'due south fracking comments for the last couple weeks, convinced that they could make all the divergence in Pennsylvania. They had ads, social media, conference calls, press releases, you name it on, all on fracking. They call back even if it moved a few votes it could be plenty to win the state.
Polls are now closed in the Eastern Time Zone of FL, they'll exist open for some other hour in Central.
If Biden wins FL tonight, information technology will be unique. He would be the 1st acme-of-the-ticket candidate to carry the state even though his party had a lower share of ballots cast than the opponent's party. Bottom line: when more Democrats vote than Republicans, the Democrat has won Florida. When more than Republicans vote than Democrats, the Republican has won.
More than Republicans are voting than Democrats in Florida. As of most 6:30, the GOP's share of vote was ane.8 percentage points higher than the Democrats, known equally an R+1.8 electorate. Information technology was R+0.6 in 2016 when Trump won past 1.2 points.
We don't know the final composition of the electorate. Then it could be higher or lower than R+1.8.
To win like this, Biden would demand a good share of independents (as much as a 7-point margin) or more GOP voters for him than Dem voters for Trump. Or a philharmonic of both. Both are possible.
Vote totals are FINALLY coming in. Then I'chiliad checking out.
Anita Trump aides were claiming high turnout in Republican areas in Luzerne, which is one of the three counties that flipped from supporting Obama to Trump in 2016.
Sen. Bob Casey — and local Democratic Party leaders — also said in that location was massive turnout in the Philadelphia suburbs, which would be a win for Biden.
Yous have to beware with these reports, though. During Election Day in 2016, Democrats reported good turnout in Philadelphia, and Clinton actually pulled out nigh every bit many raw votes out of Philly every bit Obama in 2012. But what they didn't realize was that Trump was surging in rural parts of the state and flipping some swing counties similar the ones mentioned above.
What I want to know is the number out of Philly -- what margin is Joe Biden taking out of the land'due south largest city? While Hillary Clinton dominated in Philadelphia, winning 82%, she only took a 475,000-vote border out of the city, compared Barack Obama'due south 492,000 vote advantage in 2012. That fabricated a difference in a land that was ultimately decided past roughly 45,000 votes.
Let's continue our tour around the Balloter College. When practice we become to talk some PENNSYLVANIA :eagles:? Subsequently all, it'south but at the center of the political universe tonight.
One affair I've thought about today in Georgia: Hillary Clinton lost the state by about 230,000 votes in 2016. Nearly 800,000 new voters have registered since 2018. That could be enough to put Biden over the peak, depending on which mode they lean.
Charlie, Await no further than who'south shown up at that place in the last week! Obama, Biden, Harris... and Trump. It's conspicuously a battleground. And the stakes are so loftier: Ii Senate races, a state House that could flip, several competitive House races.
Speaking of surprise swing states this twelvemonth, there'southward Georgia. I withal have a difficult time assertive the Democratic nominee has a shot of picking upwards its xvi balloter votes, but there's plenty of prove to suggest that it's in play.
Greetings from downtown Washington, where streets are shutting downwards a few blocks away from me well-nigh the White House. I just got off a briefing telephone call with Trump directorate Bill Stepien and Jason Miller. Their argument right now is that Dems cannibalized their voters during the early vote period and so, without a well-funded ground game, scrambled at the end to plough out voters on Election Day. The Trump campaign further contended that they were effective in turning out voters today like Florida
Charlie That's right it'southward a genuine battleground and voters in the land are not used to it. Many complained about all the ads; Phoenix was the elevation media market place for Biden in the final half-dozen weeks of the election. Democrats and Republicans in Arizona both say Trump accelerated Arizona turning royal. Add a growing Latino population, shifting attitudes among white suburban voters and migration from California and y'all have a new battlefield.
Yep to Elena's bespeak, I think map makers are going to accept their work cut out for them during 2021 redistricting in places like Texas or Orange County in California if Biden wins tonight. It volition exist hard to determine how these suburban voters perform in a post-Trump era
Another key Sun Chugalug country tonight is Arizona. Laura You lot've spent alot of time there and written some super smart stories most it. Why is that suddenly in play for Joe Biden? I hateful, that's a state that's only voted once for a Dem nominee (Clinton in 96) since 1952.
Charlie Elena -- I talked to a couple of Autonomous operatives who said even if Texas flips tonight, they recall it would be a one-off and not something sustainable. Basically they think Trump is such a draw to vote against and that won't be the case every time.
It'south been interesting to scout the Biden campaign with regard to Texas. They dropped it equally a possible expansion state early on on, noting information technology was a pipe dream. For the sake of down ballot races, there was some pressure from Democrats within the state for Biden to invest some time at that place fifty-fifty if he couldn't turn it blue.
A competitive presidential race, tons of hot House races, a competitive Senate race, state leg races...what is going on at that place?
How have we gone so long without talking about Texas?
Well, aside from Susan Collins and the fate of the balloter vote awarded by Maine'due south 2d District, New England looks pretty boring tonight. The industrial Midwest, the South, the Sun Belt is where all the interesting action appears to be, at least at the presidential level.
And nosotros simply heard this afternoon, from local reporters on the ground, that Vermont's GOP Gov. Phil Scott voted for Joe Biden.
But Maine is an unusual shade of bluish -- eight of the state'southward 16 counties voted for Barack Obama twice then flipped for Trump in 2016.
Stephanie Meanwhile, Collins goes into Election Night never revealing whether she voted for Trump for a second term.
Hi, everyone, joining a bit tardily from a neighborhood in DC we've taken to calling "Colina East." 1 of the prime number things I'thou looking for tonight is the messaging around whatever results we have this night. Riffing off what Anita said, in that location's a real worry circulating among election experts that if Trump or fifty-fifty downward ballot candidates say that they've won earlier races have been called by professional shot callers at a handful of news organization, that idea will spread and take agree in a way that could pb to chaos (on a day that has been largely absent of it). I generally cover tech, and the social media firms take said in recent days that they are on high-alert for so-called premature declarations – and they're prepared to quickly label anything to that consequence they run into on their networks. I'm on watch to run across how that plays out.
Expert evening from Miami, FLA. I'1000 watching three things: Florida, Florida, Florida. We're watching turnout and we can do it almost in real-time. Every bit of the 5 p.m. update, Republicans have been dominating the day in turnout, every bit expected. They began the day in a pigsty to Democrats in total ballots bandage, with the Dems ahead by 115,000 early and absentee ballots cast, a margin of 1.3 percentage points. Republicans then stormed the polls today and led Democrats by about 184,000 ballots cast, or 1.7 points. Biden wants to keep that margin at 2 or beneath. Not every Democrat is voting for Biden nor e'er Republican for Trump, so we're using these raw ballot numbers equally a sign of intensity. And right now, that'due south with Republicans. Now, 24% of the electorate are no independent party amalgamation/third political party voters, and so it's anyone'southward judge how they pause. Almost every poll says Biden leads with them, but the question is how much. Biden probably needs to win independents by 7 points if the composition of the electorate continues to look similar this. Polls shut in an hour and 15 minutes in about of Florida, and Democrats tend to vote a little later in the solar day, and so they could eat a bit back into Republican margins. The terminal Florida polls close at 7 p.m. Fundamental/8 p.m. Eastern in the GOP-leaning Panhandle, then in that location's time for more than Republican votes, too
Greetings, Charlie, from virtually 20 feet abroad from you here in the socially distanced Politician newsroom in Arlington. I'g going to be watching for what we tin can say at the stop of the nighttime nearly the presidential race and the battle for the Senate. We've been talking nearly the three different outcomes tonight without decisions in some cardinal states : A Biden win (possible), a Trump win (less possible, based on the balloter math) and the still-undecided conclusion (probably most probable). But there are varying degrees of "also early to call": Scenarios in which we probably know who won, which would brand information technology more difficult for the trailing candidate to contend that the procedure moving forward is unfair, or one in which there's existent drama almost the continued vote count in united states still working their way through post and provisional ballots. That outcome could become very messy, but we shouldn't assume solely ending the nighttime without a winner will necessarily be that messy.
Skilful evening from Philadelphia! I'm totally zeroed in on Pennsylvania tonight. Election officials were not permitted by constabulary to brainstorm counting mail service-in ballots in the state until today, so we may not know the presidential election results hither for days. Then once again, Sen. Bob Casey told me he thought the race could potentially exist called in Pennsylvania tonight. And so first, I'm looking to see what exactly we acquire this night and how quickly local governments across the state are able to process mail ballots. I just got off the phone with the Urban center Commissioners role in Philadelphia, and they told me that all the machines that procedure postal service ballots are up and running and that things are going smoothly.
Secondly, I'k looking to meet if we get a sense tonight of how many "naked ballots" there are in the state. Y'all might have heard of this: In Pennsylvania, if you don't submit your post ballot with the proper envelope, it'south called a naked ballot — and it volition get tossed out. Earlier this year, one election official said the rule could result in upwards of 100,000 mail-in ballots beingness thrown out. Democrats, including Biden's campaign, spent a ton of money educating voters about this rule to forestall that. So will that number stop up existence less than 100,000, or non?
Good evening from the great Midwest. I'chiliad merely dying to know whether Team Biden can flip one of the tougher states on their map like AZ, NC or GA. The Biden campaign seems least confident about Florida just seemed to feel pretty good about reclaiming the Blue Wall. I'thousand also keeping an eye on Wisconsin, a battleground close to my heart (and to my home). Democrats in that location are feeling skilful because they ran upwards such a stiff lead in early voting.
Hi everyone from D.C.! I'm watching to see what happens in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest states which seems to be the most crucial for a potential Trump victory given the recent polling and his path to winning in 2016....I'm also watching to run into what emerges as the chief issue for voters: the economic system (which historically has favored Trump), or his administration'south handling of Covid (where he has been far weaker in the polls). And and then, like Anita, I am watching to see how POTUS reacts. If we do non know the effect of the ballot tonight, is he cool, or does he try to claim victory regardless?
Hi from DC! Nosotros made it yous! I agree with Elena; nosotros should be able to choose "every unmarried matter!"
Merely my optics are on Florida because it will exist cardinal to letting us know how long this evening might exist. Republicans are feeling actually good that the GOP "day of" numbers today are exactly where they needed them to be even with all of the early voting we saw in the country. Florida is a must-win state for President Trump (not Biden) and it'due south a state that is a pocket-sized United States in its own right aka lots of different voting groups we'll see be important nationwide. It will as well be a state that might get called early.
Happy Election Day, everyone! This night, I'yard watching Donald Trump. What volition he practice? How will he react? If it looks similar the race is headed one way or another, does he proclaim victory or defeat? Or does he proceed this election going for days or weeks longer? I've been covering Trump for iv years now - even since I was a witness to his meeting in the Oval Office with then President Barack Obama - and I don't make any predictions. Annihilation could happen this evening and I would not exist surprised!
Hey, all! Reporting live from my couch, which is where I've been since … Super Tuesday. (Remember Super Tuesday?) To your question, Charlie, is 'everything' too broad of an reply? Ok, fine, I'll specify slightly more. I got to cover the 2018 House midterms, and the themes for that election (suburban flight from GOP, deeper party polarization in suburban/urban vs. rural/exurban, gender gap between the two parties) are at present, probable, to come into fuller view. For that reason, I'g keeping a shut eye on the Sunbelt, especially Georgia and NC, for signs of what started in 2018 is now extending into 2020.
Two counties where nosotros might exist able to see that these trends converge are: Gwinnett Canton in Georgia and Wilson County, NC. Starting with Gwinnett, this northern Atlanta suburban county used to exist solidly Republican territory. Now, it's i of those quintessential 2020 examples of a place that's booming, diversifying and turning away from Trump. If Democrats can sew together a big, big score here, that's how Biden manages to pull off a victory in Georgia, a state that hasn't voted for a Autonomous presidential candidate since 1992.
Wilson County, a suburban/exurban county in eastern NC, voted for Clinton in 2016, just barely. This is a spot where if Republicans can dig upward some new non-college educated white voters, they might show upward here. The Trump campaign recognized that – sending VP Mike Pence here concluding calendar week to rally support. If Republicans tin can flip this county, that'southward a very good sign that they'll exist able to hold on to NC.
Good evening from DC! I'm watching Arizona tonight. (I just returned from a quick trip to the state.) A Democratic presidential candidate hasn't won in that location since Bill Clinton in 1996 and this evening its genuinely in play for Joe Biden. Aware of the stakes, President Trump and VP Pence made swings through the state in the last week while Biden only visited the country once in the full general ballot. We could also know the result tonight and if Biden flips that state, Trump's road to 270 becomes a lot harder. Go on your eyes on Maricopa County. I'll also exist keeping an heart on where key voting blocs — Black voters, Latinos, white women — state.
Source: https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/president/
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